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Web3, miracle or mirage?

Published on 22 February 2023
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Comprising all the latest technologies - blockchain, cryptocurrencies, NFT and metaversers - Web3 looks set to be the future of the Internet. However, with the risk of a financial bubble and a model that is already on its last legs, the promises made for it are not certain to materialise. So should we embrace it?

Web3 is seen as the future of the web. First introduced in the 1980s, the web consisted of static sites linked together by hyperlinks. At the time, information was essentially top-down. Popularised in the 2000s, Web 2.0 added a layer of interactivity. On blogs and social media, Internet users give their opinions and share all kinds of multimedia content. Web 2.0 has also heralded the rise of GAFA and its abuse of personal data.

Theorised by Gavin Wood, co-founder of the cryptocurrency Ethereum, Web3 aims to repair the excesses of Web 2.0 by giving individuals back control of their data. This British computer scientist set out his philosophy back in 2014 in a blog post. He envisages the Web3 as a decentralised Internet where platforms are no longer owned by private operators, but managed by communities of users, working in the public interest.

A decentralised, self-managed Internet

To build this decentralised, self-managed Internet, Web3 brings together all the key technologies of the moment. These include, of course, blockchainWeb3 is the first of its kind in the world to offer a secure, tamper-proof registry for validating transactions in real time without the need for a trusted third party, as well as crypto-currencies and NFTs (non-fungible tokens). By bringing these three trends together, Web3 aims to create an environment of trust.

Issued in a distributed architecture based on a multitude of nodes, all decisions and transactions are transparent and auditable by all users of the blockchain. This approach aims to disintermediate sectors of activity, starting with the banking sector and its traditional institutions. In addition to crypto-currencies, which compete with official currencies, DeFi (Decentralised Finance) offers citizens the opportunity to manage their savings, apply for credit or invest in the stock market without using the usual intermediaries.

Finally, the ultimate building block of Web3, the metavers brings together the various elements mentioned above. In this immersive 3D world, users represented by avatars can use cryptocurrencies or NFT to buy plots of land, virtual goods or services. Luxury brands (LVMH, Balenciaga, etc.), ready-to-wear clothing (Nike, Zara, etc.), supermarkets (Carrefour) and even banks (JP Morgan, Fidelity, etc.) have already invested in the metaverse platforms The Sandbox, Decentraland and Roblox.

At least one hour a day in the metaverse in 2026

These virtual worlds, which for the time being resemble online video games such as League of Legends or Fortnite, are destined to succeed the current social networks. The Facebook group, renamed Meta for a reason, would not have spent fifteen billion dollars building its metaverse, Horizon Worlds, without reason. According to research firm Gartner, by 2026, one person in four will spend at least one hour a day in the metaverse, playing, chatting, working, shopping or learning.

Corporate use cases are also numerous. First and foremost, the metaverse should revolutionise the way work is organised. From a virtual office, it will be possible to conduct job interviews, take the successful candidate on an immersive 100 % onboarding programme, and then train them remotely. The company will also be able to organise events and seminars on its site. When it comes to collaborative working, the metaverse will offer a user experience that is far more engaging than videoconferencing sessions with Zoom, Microsoft Teams or Google Meet.

A number of sectors could see their business model revisited. Property professionals are already offering their customers from afar the chance to visit a property using a virtual reality headset. In tourism, travellers will be able to walk through their future destination before actually going there. Other use cases are emerging in the field of maintenance, with metavers enabling an operator to repeat over and over again what needs to be done without affecting the equipment being maintained. The construction and industrial sectors are already familiar with the concept of the digital twin. This virtual double of a building or factory helps to optimise its design and then its operation.

A new Internet bubble?

Will Web3 live up to its wild promises? Like any fashion phenomenon, it is not immune to a stock market bubble, as was the case with Web 2.0 in its early days. In recent months, studies have been outbidding each other to assess the potential of the metaverse. In June, McKinsey estimated its value creation potential at 5,000 billion dollars by 2030. A month earlier, another firm, Analysis Group estimated the contribution to be "only" 3,000 billion dollars in 2031.

But for the moment, metavers are not attracting the crowds. According to Wall Street Journalthe attendance figures for the virtual universe developed by Meta are well below its forecasts. On this side of the Atlantic, the newspaper Les Echos recently ran the headline "Can metavers survive the winter? In addition to the lukewarm reception given to immersive worlds by Internet users, investors are beginning to shy away from start-ups and specialist players. At the beginning of December, Meta's share price had lost 65 % of its value in one year.

Cryptocurrencies at half-mast

The other underlyings of Web3 are also going through a rough patch. Bitcoin and, in its wake, all the other crypto-currencies such as Ethereum, Dogecoin and Solana have plummeted in the space of a year. The recent collapse of the FTX exchange has shaken the confidence of the cryptos' staunchest supporters. The speculative madness surrounding NFTs also seems to be slowing down. According to specialist firm NonFungible, which analyses transactions in decentralised assets on the Ethereum blockchain in real time, the volumes traded in dollars to obtain these certificates of ownership for digital objects (photos, drawings, videos) fell by 75 % between the second and third quarters of 2022.

Web3, the new hunting ground for hackers

Because of the value they represent, cryptocurrencies and NFTs have also become the new playground for hackers. Identity theft, phishingtyposquatting (creating fake sites that look like legitimate ones), counterfeiting... the list of threats to NFT holders is long, as detailed in a blog post cybersecurity specialist Tehtris.

Moderation problems...

A veritable legal wild west, the metaverse poses other problems in terms of intellectual property and regulation. Platform publishers not only have to moderate users' text and audio exchanges in real time, but also the behaviour of their avatars. Aggressive, racist or sexist behaviour is regularly reported.

... and data confidentiality

Another problem concerns data confidentiality. As users wander through the metaverse, they leave behind a large amount of personal data, without always being aware of it. In terms of the RGPD, this raises the question of consent and the purpose for which this sensitive information is processed. Does this require a specific regulatory framework? In February, European Commissioner Margrethe Vestager said she was considering it. A way of bringing Web3 into line, far removed from the libertarian version of its beginnings.

As with any emerging concept, Web3 will be adopted gradually, in stages. On Gartner's famous hype cycleIn July of last year, it was on the verge of reaching the peak of "unreasonable expectations", only to be confronted with the reality of the situation before hoping to reach the plateau of productivity. So while caution is called for, the promises offered by Web3 are such that we need to keep an active watch on the subject.

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